The truth about Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero’s strong postseason debut

Key Highlights: 

• Paolo Banchero’s postseason numbers aren’t as impressive (or sustainable) as they seem
• Banchero has a postseason effective field goal percentage of 50.9% after posting a regular season effective field goal percentage of 43.7%
• It is important to look at the bigger picture when evaluating players in order to be more honest and fair with our evaluations

This postseason marks the first time that 2022-23 Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero has been tested in a playoff setting. On paper, the early returns have been promising. Through five games, Banchero is averaging 24.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG, and 4.4 APG on 56.2% true shooting.

However, as you probably guessed from my “on paper” remark, there is a but that comes with these numbers, and that caveat is that Banchero’s postseason debut hasn’t been as successful as it seems.

Process Over Results

Not to turn this into a philosophy class, but in life, the people who focus more on the results than enjoying the overall process are never able to achieve sustained happiness. That’s because you can’t rely on consistently good results. There is too much randomness in life for that to be possible. What you can rely on, though, is a consistently good process.

The same is true with basketball. No matter how much you train or prepare, you can never be in full control of the results. So, you need to focus on honing in your process and hope that, at the end of the day, fortune falls in your favor.

That’s what’s going on with Banchero. He is getting some good results, but the way he’s going about it (his process) isn’t all that replicable over a larger sample size.

A Problem In The Paint

The beauty of Banchero’s game is that his athleticism and imposing frame allow him to dominate the paint like few athletes in the league. During the regular season, Banchero averaged 9.7 points in the paint per game, which puts him in the 90th percentile among players with at least 30 games played (per NBA.com).

The problem is that his employer (the Orlando Magic) has one fatal flaw: poor spacing. On the season, Orlando was 29th in 3-point attempts per game (remember, when it comes to spacing, 3-point volume matters more than 3-point efficiency). And in the playoffs, fatal flaws get magnified, and the Magic’s first round opponent, the Cleveland Cavaliers, have exploited their poor spacing by packing the paint (like this).

As a result, the Magic – a team that was eighth in points in the paint per game during the regular season – has been relegated to tenth (out of 16) in that category. Banchero’s rim rates have taken a hit too. After taking 6.5 rim attempts per 75 possessions in the regular season, he’s only taken 4.7 of those shots per 75 in the playoffs (Dunks & Threes).

Like we said, a lot of this is a consequence of Orlando not touting the spacing to unclog the paint for Banchero. However, he’s also not doing himself any favors. His touch around the rim still needs some fine-tuning (42nd percentile in efficiency), and he doesn’t necessarily have the tightest handle (33rd percentile in turnover rate), which makes it hard for him to navigate close corridors.

A Small Sample Size

Regardless of the spacing circumstances, shots still need to be attempted, and Banchero is still the team’s de facto number one offensive option. And since Banchero can’t get to the rim, he’s been forced to take more pull-up midrange/3-point jumpers. After attempting 7.6 pull-up jumpers per game in the regular season, Banchero is taking 11.2 pull-ups per game in this series against the Cavaliers.

To his credit, Banchero has risen to the occasion. In the playoffs, his effective field goal percentage (which combines two and 3-point attempts) is at 50.9%. That’s right around the mark (51.5%) that Paul George (a venerable pull-up shooter) is converting on his self-generated jumpers.

That’s great company to be in, but it is also only a five-game sample size.  As a general rule, small sample sizes are prone to bizarre results. So, you have to take them with a grain of salt.

The regular season provides a much more reliable sample. For Banchero, his regular season eFG% (over the course of 80 games) is at 43.7%. If you want to add even more games, last season’s mark of 39.2% (72 games) is even worse.

Paolo has put together some nice postseason performances, but I don't think it's all that sustainable.

He's averaging more PPG, but he's also getting to the rim less and settling for more middy/3-point pull-ups instead — shots he's converting at a much higher rate than normal. pic.twitter.com/wxv2hSxQju

— Mat Issa (@matissa15) May 1, 2024

Now, one could argue that Banchero is getting cleaner pull-up looks against Cleveland than he was in the regular season, and that’s why his pull-up percentages are so high. However, a quick glance at the film (like this) shows a compilation of extremely difficult jumpers, barely going in through the skin of their teeth.

(Sidebar: You might see Banchero execute some smooth dribble moves in the clips above and wonder why I said he had a poor handle earlier. Usually, when a player is able to manufacture crazy crossovers in open space but still has a high turnover rate, that’s a telltale sign that their handle is more flashy than functional. That’s probably the case with Banchero. For those wondering, another example of this can be seen with Jaylen Brown.)

Why This Matters

The bottom line here is that Banchero is not a strong pull-up shooter and that the numbers he’s putting up against the Cavaliers aren’t sustainable over a larger sample size. That’s cool and all, but why am I bringing this up?

Being a prominent athlete is a volatile profession. When you are doing great, everyone praises you. When you are struggling, everyone throws you in the gutter. As an analyst, part of my job is about mitigating the highs and lows they experience.

Everyone is saying Banchero is next up right now, but what happens if/when his pull-up percentages start to stabilize? What will they call him then? A choker? A fraud? It’s a vicious cycle that keeps perpetuating itself for every star/future star player that comes through the NBA universe.

The real truth is likely somewhere in the middle. Banchero’s numbers are getting inflated by a timely hot shooting stretch. In the same token, his numbers are likely suppressed by the fact that his team’s poor spacing is making it impossible for him to access his greatest strength. There’s also the element of him being just 21 years old and playing in his first ever playoff series.

What does this mean for Banchero’s prospects as a superstar moving forward? I’m not entirely sure. What I do know is that it’s important to look at the full picture when we are evaluating players like Banchero. That way, we analyze them with the honesty and fairness they deserve.